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Hezbollah: How powerful is 'Israel's toughest rival' today compared to the past?

Hezbollah: How powerful is 'Israel's toughest rival' today compared to the past?

Tensions are high between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah, which has resulted in attacks by the two sides on each other and the deaths of key figures linked to Hezbollah and Iran in the region.

Israel said on Sunday that about 100 of its warplanes had struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. On the other hand, Hezbollah has also fired missiles at northern Israel in a counterattack.

If Israel's use of 100 fighter jets is true, then this is Israel's largest attack on Lebanon since 2006.

Israel says it struck Hezbollah at 4:30 a.m. local time and claims the Lebanese militant group was planning a major attack on Israel about half an hour later.

According to Lebanon's Ministry of Health, three people were killed in southern Lebanon by Israeli airstrikes.

On the other hand, the Israeli Defense Forces say that Hezbollah's attacks have caused "very little damage" in Israel.

Hezbollah says it was "phase one" of its attacks on Israel, in which 320 Katyusha missiles were fired at Israel and 11 Israeli positions were also targeted by drones.

Hizbollah also says that today's operation against Israel has been completed.

Hezbollah says the attacks on Israel are being carried out to avenge the death of its senior commander Fawad Shukar.

To predict the direction of further strained relations between Israel and Hezbollah, one must first look at the armed group's military capabilities in Lebanon and its history of conflicts with Israel.

A major war broke out between Israel and Hezbollah in July 2006, and now it seems once again that the two sides are on the brink of another conflict.

In this possible war, on one side is Israel's aerial and intelligence superiority, and on the other hand, Hezbollah has a stockpile of missiles and drones.

What would be the scenario of a possible battle between the two? To find out, we have to look at two factors: first, what lessons have been learned from the July 2006 war, and second, what has been happening in the 10 months of clashes between Israel and Hezbollah.

There is no doubt that Israel's air power is far greater than Hezbollah's and could cause a major disaster in Lebanon. But it is also true that Israel is fighting the biggest war in its history in Gaza and that is why its military forces are probably suffering from exhaustion.

As for Hezbollah, more than 350 of its fighters, including Fawad Shukar and three top leaders, have been killed in Israeli airstrikes so far.

Hezbollah: How powerful is 'Israel's toughest rival' today compared to the past?

However, the Shiite-majority political and military party Hezbollah has experience fighting in Syria, which has given its field commanders plenty of experience.

Hezbollah is supported by Iran and receives financial and military support from there.

Hezbollah has been declared a terrorist organization by several Western countries, including the United States, Britain, and some Arab states.

However, the Lebanese government sees it as a resistance group against Israel. Hezbollah also has the status of a political party in the country and has representatives in the parliament.

Hezbollah: How powerful is 'Israel's toughest rival' today compared to the past?

A formal war broke out between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006 when Hezbollah killed eight Israeli soldiers and kidnapped two.

Hezbollah demanded the release of its fighters in exchange for the release of Israeli soldiers.

Observers say that if another war breaks out between Israel and Hezbollah, Israel could face a 2006-like situation. During this war, Israel not only carried out airstrikes in Lebanon but also landed ground troops there.

However, despite all this, Israel was unable to achieve its goals, neither was it able to release its hostages nor was it able to crush Hezbollah's military power.

The 34-day war between the two in 2006 ended on August 11 due to a resolution passed by the United Nations Security Council.

As soon as Israel stopped its operations, on the morning of August 14, Hezbollah also stopped firing missiles at Israel.

Hezbollah and Israel are still accused of violating the UN resolution. Hezbollah is criticized for not destroying its weapons stockpile, while Israel is criticized for still occupying Lebanese territory and frequently violating the country's airspace.

Hezbollah: How powerful is 'Israel's toughest rival' today compared to the past?

Hezbollah's attacks on Israel

The latest conflict between Lebanon and Israel began on October 8 last year when Hezbollah targeted Israeli front lines.

Hezbollah said the attacks were in retaliation for the Israeli bombing of Gaza and in "support of Gaza". It should be remembered that on October 7 last year, Hamas attacked southern Israel and called this operation 'Operation Storm Al-Aqsa'.

Israel launched an operation in Gaza in response to Hamas attacks, which are still ongoing.

Hezbollah has announced that it will keep the front open against Israel until there is a cease-fire in Gaza.

In addition, there is a military coalition operating in the region, which includes Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthi fighters, Islamic Jihad, and other Iraqi groups, and this coalition is supported by Iran.

Hezbollah: How powerful is 'Israel's toughest rival' today compared to the past?

Hezbollah and Israeli officials have repeatedly said they are ready for war but would prefer to avoid any formal war first.

Meanwhile, Israel threatened to send Lebanon back to the 'Stone Age' in the event of a war with Hezbollah.

According to the United Nations, about 90,000 people have been displaced from the border areas due to clashes between Hezbollah and Israel. Most of these people belong to Lebanon.

In these clashes, around 100 civilians and 366 Hezbollah fighters have been killed in Israeli attacks.

According to Israeli officials, about 60,000 people have been forced to leave their homes and 33 people have been killed in their country due to Hezbollah attacks.

The BBC has analyzed satellite images showing that more than 3,200 buildings in southern Lebanon have been completely or partially destroyed.

On the other hand, Israeli media say that more than a thousand buildings have been damaged in the northern part of the country.

Hezbollah: How powerful is 'Israel's toughest rival' today compared to the past?

"Israel's Toughest Rival"

Justin Crump, a UK-based military expert, says Hezbollah is "perhaps Israel's toughest challenger right now."

Justin Crump spent years in the British Army and later founded a consulting company called Sabline. "Hezbollah still has all the weapons it had in 2006, it just has more weapons," he says.

According to the American intelligence agency CIA, Hizbollah currently has 150,000 shells and missiles of various types, while the number of its fighters is 45,000.

In the past, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah claimed that he had more than 100,000 fighters.

Hezbollah: How powerful is 'Israel's toughest rival' today compared to the past?

During the July 2006 war with Israel, Hezbollah made extensive use of Katyushas, ​​grade rockets, and anti-tank missiles. Meanwhile, Hezbollah fighters were also seen using Russian-made Kornet guided missiles.

Military expert Justin Crump says that Israel has air superiority, but "Hezbollah has the advantage of its complex location, which is a very difficult area."

According to him, "Hezbollah has increased its ability to hide its vehicles and missile launch sites, and therefore Israeli airstrikes alone will not be enough to stop Hezbollah's missile attacks on Israel."

"If I were a tank commander, I certainly wouldn't want to be sent near the river in southern Lebanon, because there I would be facing Hezbollah and its anti-tank missiles, and I wouldn't be happy about that situation at all."

Missiles and weapons held by Hezbollah

Hezbollah never discloses how many or which missiles it has. All this is known only when the fighters use these missiles.

According to several intelligence reports over the years, Hezbollah's main source of weapons is Iran, which supplies the group through Iraq and Syria.

Among these weapons are Almas-3 anti-tank missiles, which are modern Iranian weapons.

Hezbollah recently used Birkin and Jihad Mughnia missiles against Israel. The missile is named by Hezbollah after one of its leaders who was killed in Syria in 2015.

"What we are seeing now is a version of Hezbollah that is more modern than it was in 2006," says Amal Saad, associate professor at Cardiff University.

Amal Saad also wrote a book on the Lebanese knot called 'Hezbollah: Politics and Religion'.

"Hezbollah is no longer just a hybrid player in this game, but has the characteristics of a conventional army and non-conventional groups in common," she writes.

Hezbollah also has Russian missiles

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has repeatedly said that his group has missiles capable of reaching central Israel.

Ali Jazini, a journalist and analyst associated with the Lebanese TV channel Mayadeen, which is considered close to Hezbollah, says that Hassan Nasrallah's statements indicate that his organization has short-range ballistic missiles that can hit up to 300 kilometers.

They say that the distance between Lebanon and Israel is short and this will benefit Hezbollah because it will give the Israeli army less time to deal with missile attacks.

According to Ali Jazini, these could be Iranian-made Zalzal and Fateh 110 missiles.

One proof of Hezbollah's possession of these missiles is the images that circulate on the Internet. These images show that Hezbollah also has Russian missiles.

Military expert Justin Crump says that Hezbollah may have acquired these missiles in Syria. Iran often makes copies of Russian weapons and missiles, and these weapons may have reached Hezbollah through an Iranian supplier.

Hezbollah: How powerful is 'Israel's toughest rival' today compared to the past?

Use of Drones in War

In addition to missiles, the biggest change in the potential battle this time around is that Hezbollah will increase its reliance on drones. Missiles can also be installed in these drones.

Justin Crump says: "Hezbollah is using these drones in a better and more innovative way."

The British military expert added that Hezbollah has had a separate drone unit since 2006, but they were all military-style drones.

"But now they rely heavily on commercial drones, just like other armed groups, because drones are becoming more central to warfare."

However, in this regard, journalist Ali Hazini says that commercial drones can be easily jammed or disabled, but he believes that Hezbollah also has military drones, which he claims With their help, they spy on military installations in northern Israel.

Recently, there were reports in the Israeli media about a Hezbollah drone, which was an Iranian Shaheed 101-type drone, and it made no sound at all while flying.

Due to this, it becomes difficult to catch this drone with the help of radar because it does not fly at a high altitude.

According to sources close to Hezbollah, these drones have been used by Yemeni and Iraqi groups in the past.

Hezbollah: How powerful is 'Israel's toughest rival' today compared to the past?

Ali Jazini believes that there is a big difference between the Hezbollah of last October and today's Hezbollah: "In terms of signals intelligence, jamming, and communication, Israel has the most advanced technology. Sending a drone inside Israel from a distance of about 20 kilometers and taking pictures of sensitive installations shows that Hezbollah has learned some lessons and found a way to deal with Israeli technological innovation.

The capabilities of Hezbollah's drone program, the downing of Israeli Hermes 450 or Hermes 900 drones, and announcements that Hezbollah has forced Israeli aircraft out of Lebanese airspace have some saying that The Lebanese military group has set up an air strategy to stop Israel.

However, observers say that Hezbollah's aerial capabilities are being exaggerated.

Ali Jazini explains this issue and says: "The issue of air combat is a bit complicated because the issue here is not to destroy a single plane, but this series should continue." I mean, do you have the capability to shoot down fighter jets for 10 days in a row?'

Commenting on Hezbollah's air capabilities, he added, "If the goal is to reduce the number of Israeli planes, and if that happens, then you have succeeded in one of your goals."

According to the Lebanese journalist, "Hezbollah is actually far from having the power it needs to prevent Israeli planes from entering Lebanese airspace."

Justin Crump also seems to agree with Ali Hazini on this issue. He says Hezbollah may be able to intercept Israeli planes that don't fly at high altitudes, but Israeli planes can fly high.

According to him, "Hezbollah cannot completely close the Lebanese airspace for Israeli planes."

Hezbollah: How powerful is 'Israel's toughest rival' today compared to the past?

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